TSL Express Daily News

Phoenix Management, a Part of J.S. Held Lending Survey Results Reveal Continued Concern About Political Uncertainty

JERICHO, NY; December 11, 2025:  Following the meeting of the US Federal Reserve yesterday, global consulting firm J.S. Held reveals the “Lending Climate in America” survey results from Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held. The fourth quarter survey results highlight the persisting lender views on policy decisions and their national/global impacts.

Phoenix’s Q4 2025 “Lending Climate in America” survey asked lenders which factors could have the strongest potential to impact the economy in the upcoming six months. Forty-six percent of lenders think political uncertainty will have the strongest impact on the economy, while 41% of lenders believe geopolitical risk (war) has the strongest potential to impact the economy. Lenders continue to believe that the possibility of a U.S. recession and upcoming FOMC interest rate decisions will impact the economy. To see the full results of Phoenix’s “Lending Climate in America” Survey, please visit https://www.phoenixmanagement.com/lending-survey/.

Lenders revealed what actions their customers may take in the next six months. Almost two-thirds of the surveyed lenders believe their customers will raise additional capital, while 30%+ of the surveyed lenders believe their customers will introduce new products and make acquisitions.

Forty-three percent of respondents identified the retail trade industry as the most likely to experience volatility in the next six months, followed by the healthcare (social assistance) industry at 38% of respondents.

Additionally, Phoenix’s “Lending Climate in America” survey asked lenders if their respective institutions plan to tighten, maintain, or relax their loan structures for various sized loans. For larger loan structures (greater than $25M), the plan to maintain loan structures remained relatively constant from Q3 to Q4, increasing by 9%. As loan sizes decrease, lenders plan to maintain their loan structures. Loans in the range of $15-25M and $5-15M saw very similar structure changes from Q3 to Q4. Loans under $5M had no change in structure.

Lender optimism in the U.S. economy decreased for the near term, moving from 2.58 in Q3 2025 to 2.38. In this current quarter, there is heavy expectation of a B level performance (49%), with a majority of the remainder (41%) sitting at a C level. Lender expectations for the U.S. economy’s performance in the longer term also decreased from 2.71 to 2.46. Of the lenders surveyed, 54% believe the U.S. economy will perform at a B level during the next twelve months, virtually no change from the prior quarter. Performance expectations at the D level increased by 5%, matching the increase at a C level.

“Lenders are signaling heightened caution as political uncertainty and geopolitical risks dominate near-term economic concerns,” says Michael Jacoby, Senior Managing Director and Strategic Advisory Practice Lead at J.S. Held. “Confidence in the U.S. economy continues to erode, with short-term grades slipping from a weighted average of 2.58 in Q3 to 2.38 in Q4, and long-term expectations following the same downward trend. While most lenders plan to maintain current loan structures, a notable 21% anticipate tightening terms, even as 77% expect further Fed rate cuts in the coming months. Industry volatility is projected to rise sharply in healthcare, consumer products, and finance, underscoring a challenging environment for borrowers and investors alike.”

About Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held

For over 35 years, Phoenix has provided smarter, operationally focused solutions for middle market companies in transition. Phoenix Management Services® provides turnaround, crisis and interim management, and specialized advisory for both distressed and growth-oriented companies. Phoenix Investor Services® provides quality of earnings, operational diligence, Quality of Enterprise®, business integration, sell-side business preparation, and other transaction related support. Phoenix IB® provides seamless investment banking solutions including M&A advisory, complex restructurings, and capital placements.

As a part of J.S. Held, Phoenix works alongside more than 1,500 professionals globally and assists clients – corporations, insurers, law firms, governments, and institutional investors.   

J.S. Held is a global consulting firm providing technical, scientific, financial, and strategic expertise across all assets and value at risk. Our professionals serve as trusted advisors to organizations facing high-stakes matters demanding urgent attention, staunch integrity, proven experience, clear-cut analysis, and an understanding of both tangible and intangible assets. The firm provides a comprehensive suite of services, products, and data that enable clients to navigate complex, contentious, and often catastrophic situations. 

More than 1,500 professionals serve organizations across six continents, including 84% of the Global 200 Law Firms, 75% of the Forbes Top 20 Insurance Companies (90% of the NAIC Top 50 Property & Casualty Insurers), and 71% of the Fortune 100 Companies.

J.S. Held, its affiliates and subsidiaries are not certified public accounting firm(s) and do not provide audit, attest, or any other public accounting services. J.S. Held, its affiliates and subsidiaries are not law firms and do not provide legal advice. Securities offered through PM Securities, LLC, d/b/a Phoenix IB, a part of J.S. Held, member FINRA/ SIPC or Ocean Tomo Investments, a part of J.S. Held, member FINRA/ SIPC. All rights reserved.

CONTACT: 

Kristi L. Stathis
J.S. Held LLC
kristi.stathis@jsheld.com
+1 786 833 4864