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SFNet's The 81st Annual Convention Issue
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Top 5 Apps for Organizing
Mar 7, 2019If you’re like most of us, we try to stay organized in business and life, but it gets increasingly complicated…
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The Importance of Stretching
Mar 7, 2019Every personal trainer and athletic coach I have ever worked with has stressed the importance of stretching. When working out…
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SFNet's 40 Under 40 Award Winners Panel Recap
Mar 6, 2019Moderator: Samantha Alexander, regional underwriting manager, Wells Fargo Capital Finance’s Corporate Asset Based Lending group and 2016 CFA 40 Under…
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SFNet's Inaugural YoPro Leadership Summit
Mar 6, 2019The Secured Finance Network brought together the next generation of commercial finance leaders for a full day of learning and…
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It’s a Marathon, Not a Sprint
Aug 22, 2018I was recently invited to participate in an executive panel to answer questions from a credit training class comprised of...
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It’s Not Too Late – Five Member Benefits to Cash In On Now
Aug 1, 2018As we hit the half way mark on calendar year 2018, it is a good time to take stock and…
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It’s Time To Break Up With Your Phone
Jul 18, 2018Do I have your attention? Let’s be honest here: do you have the attention span to read this article? Compared…
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Lien Management – What You Need to Know
Jun 6, 2018UCC filing is the cornerstone of all loans and every lien portfolio...
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Potential Impacts of Blockchain on Commercial Lending
Jan 15, 2018By Raja Sengupta, Executive Vice President and General Manager, Wolters Kluwer’s Lien Solutions When it comes to the rising importance…
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How to be a Good Leader
Dec 5, 2017I know what you’re thinking…another article about how to be a good leader? The short answer is yes…but this time,…
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Fintech and Due Diligence – Disruptors and Established Firms Evolve
Oct 30, 2017The fintech sector has gone through a number of manifestations in the past two decades.
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A Commercial Banker’s Tickler Transition Plan
Oct 18, 2017Just do a keyword search for “bank tickler,” and you’ll quickly realize that banks are still heavily reliant on manual…
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Understanding and Developing Your Personal Brand: Four Steps to a More Intentional Career Progression
Sep 5, 2017It is imperative for individuals to have a general idea about their future career aspirations, just as companies should have clearly defined strategies.
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Selecting a Technology Vendor: 3 Questions to Ask
Jul 5, 2017As with anything else at your bank, selecting a technology vendor can be a challenging decision. Users from across different…
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Why Back-Office Lending Automation Enhances Customer Satisfaction
Apr 25, 2017Every bank strives to keep its customers happy. Of course, some institutions are better at achieving this goal than…
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The Lost Art of the Loan Purchase
Mar 2, 2017Purchasing a loan directly from a bank whether at par or discount is a not-often-used technique that is easily…
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Audit Prep: Why a Paperless Approach Makes Sense
Feb 15, 2017How much time does your financial institution spend preparing for audits? We recently surveyed 187 community banks, and the results…
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Back Office Support Services: Helping you approve more clients
Feb 7, 2017How many times have you come across a potential client who’s financials are either not up to date, not accurate,…
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“All Assets” is the Key When Drafting UCC-1 Financing Statement Collateral Descriptions
Jan 30, 2017Even when prepared by outside or in-house counsel, many lenders pay close attention to draft UCC financing statements before they…
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Paper Loan Files: Does Your Bank Know the True Cost?
Jan 12, 2017Sure, there’s a tangible cost associated with deploying an electronic loan imaging system. Software, support, and scanning hardware are just…
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July 5, 2023
Source: Fitch Ratings
Fitch Ratings-New York-30 June 2023: Nearly three quarters of North American sectors maintain a deteriorating outlook for 2023, reflecting Fitch Ratings’ expectation for weaker core credit drivers relative to 2022. Inflation, rising rates, and tightening lending conditions remain key considerations for North American sector outlooks.
There are no mid-year changes to our sector outlooks except for U.S. REITs, for which we changed the sector outlook to deteriorating from neutral, taking into account further tightening of commercial real estate (CRE) lending conditions amid ongoing valuation pressure and macro headwinds.
Economic growth in 1H23 was stronger than expected, supported by robust employment and consumption, which have been mostly resilient to rising rates. We have raised our 2023 economic growth forecasts for the U.S. to 1.2% from 1.0% and Canada to 1.3% from 0.8%.
However, demand indicators are showing signs of slowing, according to our latest Global Economic Outlook. We forecast a shallow U.S. recession in 4Q23-1Q24, driven by tighter credit conditions, lower savings, reduced business investment and expected negative job growth. The effects of these factors on the consumer are key considerations underlying our deteriorating outlooks for financial institutions, consumer securitizations, the retail sector and sectors tied to residential real estate. For some corporations and infrastructure projects, demand erosion may weaken pricing power, and still-high operating costs and capex could pose challenges to cost recovery and contribute to margin pressures.
Anticipated regulatory changes as a result of the March banking sector crisis, combined with recession concerns and lower banking system liquidity from monetary tightening, will continue to impair credit availability. Financial sector tightening has been most evident in refinancing risk for CRE loans, but leveraged loans are also starting to feel its effects. Weak demand and higher vacancies have caused certain office and retail property values to drop, which may have material negative implications for REITs, CMBS, municipalities and financial institutions.
Contacts:
Sarah Repucci
Senior Director, Fitch Wire
Credit Policy - Research
+1 212 908-0726
Fitch Ratings, Inc.
Hearst Tower
300 W. 57th Street
New York, NY 10019
There are no mid-year changes to our sector outlooks except for U.S. REITs, for which we changed the sector outlook to deteriorating from neutral, taking into account further tightening of commercial real estate (CRE) lending conditions amid ongoing valuation pressure and macro headwinds.
Economic growth in 1H23 was stronger than expected, supported by robust employment and consumption, which have been mostly resilient to rising rates. We have raised our 2023 economic growth forecasts for the U.S. to 1.2% from 1.0% and Canada to 1.3% from 0.8%.
However, demand indicators are showing signs of slowing, according to our latest Global Economic Outlook. We forecast a shallow U.S. recession in 4Q23-1Q24, driven by tighter credit conditions, lower savings, reduced business investment and expected negative job growth. The effects of these factors on the consumer are key considerations underlying our deteriorating outlooks for financial institutions, consumer securitizations, the retail sector and sectors tied to residential real estate. For some corporations and infrastructure projects, demand erosion may weaken pricing power, and still-high operating costs and capex could pose challenges to cost recovery and contribute to margin pressures.
Anticipated regulatory changes as a result of the March banking sector crisis, combined with recession concerns and lower banking system liquidity from monetary tightening, will continue to impair credit availability. Financial sector tightening has been most evident in refinancing risk for CRE loans, but leveraged loans are also starting to feel its effects. Weak demand and higher vacancies have caused certain office and retail property values to drop, which may have material negative implications for REITs, CMBS, municipalities and financial institutions.
Contacts:
Sarah Repucci
Senior Director, Fitch Wire
Credit Policy - Research
+1 212 908-0726
Fitch Ratings, Inc.
Hearst Tower
300 W. 57th Street
New York, NY 10019
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