Middle Market Business Index Surges to 138.5 Despite Elevated Inflation

Business conditions in the American real economy imply no recession in the third quarter as the middle market remains on a path for growth, even as the market grapples with elevated inflation.

According to the RSM US Middle Market Business Index, top-line sentiment among midsize company executives improved to a seasonally adjusted index reading of 138.5, up 7.3 points from the second quarter. That change is significant at both the 0.10 and 0.05 levels. An economy displaying such a robust reading, along with business conditions that have produced 3.4 million jobs over the first seven months of the year and unemployment of 3.5%, is not consistent with a recession.

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