In a period marked by volatile policy shifts, persistent inflationary concerns, and market recalibrations, SFNet’s June members-only webinar, “2025 Mid-Year Market Pulse: Navigating the Shifting Economic Landscape,” offered much-needed perspective from thought leaders across secured finance, macroeconomics, and credit markets. Drawing from proprietary survey data, sector analyses, and forecasts, the session mapped a complex, but navigable, road ahead for asset-based lenders, factors, and credit professionals.

Macroeconomic Overview: Strength in the Hard Data, Anxiety in the Soft

Rob Wescott, president of Keybridge LLC, opened the webinar by highlighting the split between robust hard data and increasingly shaky soft indicators. On one hand, the U.S. labor market remains resilient—adding 139,000 jobs in May—and industrial production is holding above 2024 levels. GDP growth, while volatile, is projected to hover near 1.7% for the year, reflecting moderate expansion despite multiple economic headwinds.

But underneath the surface, economic policy uncertainty has surged to record highs, and the Federal Reserve has repeatedly invoked the specter of stagflation. Political gridlock and foreign trade conflicts continue to muddy the waters. Recent policy actions—including renewed tariffs on Chinese imports—have sent ripples through supply chains, prompting businesses to reassess procurement strategies and pricing models.

Tariffs remain a wildcard. Since January 2025, average U.S. tariffs have spiked sevenfold to over 15%, driving pre-emptive import surges in Q1 and escalating inflation fears. Wescott noted a sharp divergence in consumer behavior: higher-income Americans—buoyed by the stock market and home equity— continue to spend, while lower-income households are increasingly reliant on minimum credit card payments.

Please click here to continue reading, start with the Sector Outlook: A Tale of Two Consumers subhead.