The Evolving Trade and Financial Landscape

The global trade environment is facing a seismic shift with the imposition of new tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada—with reciprocal tariffs likely to follow. Historically, duty-free trade agreements under USMCA helped U.S. businesses optimize their supply chains. However, as of the reference point date of March 4, 2025 (tariffs are changing frequently), the United States has imposed tariffs that fluctuate frequently and could likely change at the time of article publication.

In response, trading partners such as China, Mexico, and Canada are considering reciprocal tariffs, which could further tighten liquidity for importers and escalate financing risks for lenders. As borrowing costs rise and customs bond obligations increase, secured lenders must assess the cascading risks these policies pose.

Customs Bonds: The Hidden Financial Risk for Lenders

Customs bonds guarantee the payment of duties, taxes, and fees to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP). These bonds are 10% of the duties, taxes, and fees of an importer’s rolling past 12 months.

With rising tariffs, importers will see:

• Significant increases in bond values, tightening liquidity.
• Strained credit availability, impacting loan terms.
• Delays in securing bonds, disrupting supply chains.

Reciprocal Tariffs: A New Layer of Financial Risk

If Mexico, Canada, and China impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports, the financial impact will spread beyond importers. Lenders must prepare for:

• Reduced cash flow for exporters facing reciprocal duties.
• Weakened collateral positions for businesses reliant on
• international markets.
• Potential defaults from businesses facing lower sales and
• higher costs.